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The Rebel Alliance would defeat the United Federation of Planets in space combat.
Tactics over technology has historically been the deciding factor in battle. The Federation has rarely showed itself to posses any strategic thinkers or battle planners.
The Federation has tacticians and strategists such as Garth of Izar, James.T.Kirk, Jean Luc Picard, William Riker, Edward Jellico, Benjamin Sisko, William Ross, Elizabeth Shellby, Alynna Nechayev, Admiral Hayes and others. All of whom shows significant tactical and strategic thinking.
Technology and tactics both play an important role. Even with advanced tactics, a vessel from the era of sail ships with cannons won't be able to win against a modern battle ship.