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The Rebel Alliance would defeat the United Federation of Planets in space combat.
The Federation has defeated several forces in the past which appeared to have been of equal or superior strength to the Rebel Alliance.
The Federation defeated The Dominion, a far larger and superior force.
The Federation has had many successful engagements against The Borg Collective, who have assimilated the technologies and cultures of thousands of worlds.
The Madena Coalition encountered in the episode "
The Outrageous Okona
" have weapon technology and ships similar to that of the Rebel Alliance. Picard and Riker commented that (the Okona)
would not even penetrate our navigation shields. They posed no threat to the Federation.
Many of the mentioned engagements against the Borg were either won through sheer luck or some form of outside interference (Time Travellers, Q, etc). The most well known engagements ended in severe amounts of casualties and lost ships (See: Battle of Wolf 359, Battle of Sector 001)
The Rebel Alliance is accustomed to fighting a superior force. That is their constant reality. The Federation rarely comes up against such opponents.